The Fields-Carleton Distinguished Lecture is an annual lecture sponsored by the Fields Institute for Research in Mathematical Sciences and Carleton University. The series features internationally-renowned speakers with expertise in mathematics, statistics and theoretical computer science. Each guest speaker delivers a public lecture as well as a research lecture, which is more technical in nature.

The 2021 Fields-Carleton Distinguished Lecture

Time Series Approaches to Compare Covid-19 Mortality in the Province of Ontario, Canada, Across Three Epidemic Waves

Nov. 2, 2021 at 2:30 p.m. ET on Zoom

The province of Ontario, Canada has experienced three epidemic waves of Covid-19. Hospitalizations and deaths, though lagging indicators, are considered an important metric for comparison of waves. For the purposes of understanding the trend in hospitalizations and mortality we utilize time series approaches for modeling outcomes. Cointegration analysis is employed to identify the long-run relationship between these processes. The outcomes are modeled through a shared latent stochastic error term in a novel framework that allows us to study the underlying correlation between two time series processes.

We also develop a logistic growth model for the cumulative number of deaths through each wave. Although an empirical model, it incorporates conceptual elements that support the framework required for modeling any infectious disease where hospitalizations are required in management of the disease. By nature, the logistic growth model is deterministic, and so we induce stochasticity through incorporating the variability that is observed in modeling the daily counts and propose a tool that that can be used to quantify the behavior of the disease within a short time period.


Guest Speaker: Dr. Charmaine B. Dean

Vice-President, Research and International
University of Waterloo

Charmaine is Vice-President, Research and International at the University of Waterloo. In this role, she is focused on building upon foundational strengths to heighten the emphasis on collaborations, and link related external portfolios in a systematic approach to industrial partners and entrepreneurship.

From 2011 to 2017, Dr. Dean served as Dean of Science at Western University. Prior to her service at Western, she played a major role in establishing the Faculty of Health Sciences at Simon Fraser University in her capacity of Associate Dean of that Faculty. Previously, she was the founding Chair of the Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science at Simon Fraser University.

An engaged member of several relevant boards including, Compute Ontario, the Southern Ontario Smart Computing Innovation Platform, the Vector Institute for Artificial Intelligence and the Institute for Cybersecurity and Privacy, Dr. Dean has also served as a board member for the US National Institute of Statistical Sciences (NISS) Corporation, the National Institute for Complex Data Structures and the Canadian Statistical Sciences Institute. She is dedicated to developing outstanding computing capabilities for researchers and for building capacity in Canada and is interested in bringing together diverse communities to drive forward a unified direction for data management activities and priorities.

Past Lectures

Recent guest speakers include:

Gang Tian, Peking University
Uffe Haagerup, University of Copenhagen
Thomas C. Hales, University of Pittsburgh
Kenneth R. Davidson, University of Waterloo
Donald Dawson, Carleton University
V. Kumar Murty, University of Toronto
Philippe Flajolet, INRIA
Jerrold Marsden, California Institute of Technology
Donald Saari, University of California, Irvine